$6.6 Trillion Retirement Savings Shortfall Shows 401(k)'s No Replacement for Pensions

Last week the Washington Post ran a story on the weaknesses of 401(k) retirement accounts, focusing on the the fact that 1/4 of Americans with 401(k)'s have used them to meet current income needs. Among people in their forties, the share rises to 1/3,  an astounding figure considering how close this group is to retirement. In the wake of the Great Recession and continuing job market problems, it is perhaps not surprising that 28% of 401(k) account holders presently have loans against their accounts.



As the Post delicately puts it,

Many employers have embraced 401(k) and other defined-contribution
accounts as a way of helping workers save for retirement while relieving
themselves of the financial risks that come with managing a traditional
pension plan. In theory, 401(k) accounts are better suited to an
economy in which workers are changing jobs more frequently than ever
because the accounts can be rolled over from previous employers.

A more accurate way of saying this would be that employers have embraced 401(k) plans because they are less expensive than providing pensions, thereby "cut(ting) overall employee compensation," and that 401(k) plans don't take into account the stagnation of real wages, points well made by commenter "Sean2020."



Moreover, as I reported before, 49% of private sector worker have neither a 401(k) or a defined benefit pension plan. Thus, they have no supplement to their eventual Social Security benefits unless they are able to save outside of a 401(k).



And they aren't saving. At least, they're aren't saving nearly enough to maintain their standard of living after retirement. As a report from the Senate's Health, Education, Labor, and Pension (HELP) committee states, there is a  $6.6 trillion gap (methodology here) between what people need to maintain their current standard of living and what they've actually saved for retirement. This is equal to the combined assets of defined benefit pensions and 401(k) type plans, more than total state/local/federal government retirement plans, and more than twice as much as the Social Security Trust Fund. There's a reason I've been using the word "crisis"!



Total Assets



Social Security Trust Fund      $2.7 trillion (12/31/2012)

Defined benefit pensions         $2.3 trillion (9/30/2012)

Defined contribution 401(k)    $4.3 trillion (9/30/2012)

State/local gov't employee      $3.1 trillion (9/30/2012)

Federal employee retirement  $1.5 trillion (9/30/2012)

IRA's                                    $4.9 trillion (6/30/2011)





Sources: Social Security Administration; Federal Reserve, tables L-116, L-117, and L-118 (financial assets only), for DB, DC, and government employee programs; Investment Company Institute for IRAs



This gigantic hole shows that the current model, based on 401(k)'s rather than true pensions, is not working. In a future post I will discuss ways to fix the crisis.

Poll Results: 1 in 4 Never Expects to be Able to Afford to Retire

Thanks to everyone who answered the poll on when you have or expect to be able to retire. The biggest takeaway is that 1 in 4 never expect to be able to retire.



Full results:



Retire before 65: 20%

At 65: 20%

At 70: 20%

At 75: 4%

Over 75: 8%

Never: 25%



(Total does not equal 100 due to rounding.)



This underscores just how dire our retirement crisis will be. As I explained in my last post, the decline in defined benefit pensions from 38% of private sector workers in 1980 to 20% in 2008 means that Generation X will be particularly vulnerable to poverty in retirement, yet Republicans want to kill Social Security and Medicare. We see their efforts as well to eliminate defined benefit pensions for public sector workers.



Baby boomers, especially younger ones, will not be exempt from the crisis. But Generation X and beyond will be the hardest hit. More on the retirement crisis soon.